North Atlantic heating up

The North Atlantic Ocean is heating up, as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere. The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperatures up to April 11, 2024. The image shows that 2024 temperatures have been significantly higher than 2023 temperatures for the same date. The annual maximum temperature in 2023 was reached on August 31. Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically over the next few months, in line with the change in seasons. 

2024 temperatures to exceed 2023 temperatures?

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000. The green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) could be a warning of higher temperature anomalies to come. 

Much will depend on the strength of the current El Niño over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 through March 2024, colored by El Niño/La Niña conditions. 

NOAA warns that there is a bit of a delay in the effects of any given ENSO phase. So, the first part of this year will still be influenced by El Niño, which is in part why NOAA predicts a 55% chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023.

Further factors (other than El Niño) may continue to accelerate the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice getting very thin

The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface.

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

The image below warns that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Ocean temperature anomalies
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/1/0/2015-2024?filter=true&filterType=loess

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202403/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - ENSO update 
https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/posts/821505663344434
also discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161353804294679

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

The astonishing recent rise in temperatures makes one wonder whether a Regime Change did take place in 2023. 

The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the Regime Change that may have occurred in 2023.

Meanwhile, NASA has released details for the March 2024 temperature, which was slightly lower (1.69°C above 1885-1915) than the February 2024 temperature (1.76°C above 1885-1915). Yet, the recent acceleration of the temperature rise has hardly changed, as highlighted by the red line. The question is whether this red line will continue with this steep rise.

The image below, created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024).

What could have caused such a steep rise? Of course, short-term variables such as El Niño did have a strong impact. However, sea surface temperatures have risen hugely for more than a year, far exceeding the temperatures of 2016, which was a strong El Niño year. This indicates that there must be other factors involved in the recent rise.

The image below shows world daily sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N) through April 8, 2024. 

For more than a year, sea surface temperatures have been much higher than in any previous year on record, as if temperatures suddenly shifted into another gear and the climate experienced a Regime Change in 2023.

[ from the Extinction page ]

The top image illustrates that the temperature rise since pre-industrial could be as large as 2.75°C, as also discussed at the pre-industrial page. The extinction page points out that such a rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.

This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, accelerating the temperature rise (as illustrated by the image on the right).

There is no single feedback behind the recent steep rise, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-reinforcing feedbacks that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and accelerating the rise.

Such feedbacks include water vapor, storms, ocean stratification, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. Furthermore, developments such as the reduction in sulfur emissions from shipping over the past few years further push up the temperature rise.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.176°C when compared to a 1951-1980 base.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.435°C when compared to a 1901-2000 base. 

The difference illustrates the importance of selecting a base to calculate anomalies from. The anomaly indicates how much heat has accumulated in the Atlantic, and it is even larger for February 2024 when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, as discussed earlier.

The images also highlight the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean.

As temperatures rise, many feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, including increased stratification of oceans, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and increased freshwater due to stronger melting of sea ice and glacial ice, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in ocean circulation.

While this may look to cause less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, the result is that a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that an influx of ocean heat can cause large amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

The inset on the top image illustrates that, as people's emissions raise the temperature, this rise can strengthen wind, evaporation, ocean currents and rainfall locally, resulting in greater potential for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise and winds strengthen, more evaporation can occur in one place and more rain can then fall further down the path of the Gulf Stream, i.e. an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses a recent study by Marilena Oltmanns et al. on some of these issues.

This page further discusses formation of a cool freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic and the contribution to this of Jet Stream changes. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

From earlier post Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the image below. 

Many of the dangers have been discussed before, e.g. the danger that sea currents in the Arctic Ocean will change direction, in this 2017 post. 

Arctic sea ice thickness warning

The compilation image below shows Arctic sea ice on March 28, 2024. The satellite image (left) may indicate extensive sea ice, but clouds can obscure things. The other image (right) indicates that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin.

The image below illustrates the decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years.

The images above and below show that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface. 

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years - by Marilena Oltmanns et al.
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/wcd-5-109-2024-discussion.html
discussed at facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161330866254679

• Science Snippets: Arctic Sea Ice Affects European Summers, Marine Life, and All Life on Earth - by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09vtWNDuDw

• nullschool 
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2024 - by Philip Klotzbach et al.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161346323759679

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• NASA Worldview satellite images
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tragedy set to unfold in Tropics (update)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on March 13, 2024. The image below shows the situation over the years through March 13, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.9°C and 1.4°C above 1979-2000 (black line is 2024).

The previous record high temperature was reached on April 24, 2016, when it was 26.8°C, and 1°C above 1979-2000 (grey line is 2016). 

The annual maximum temperature in the Tropics is typically reached in April, but very high temperatures were also reached in early May 2023 (orange line is 2023), so the temperature this year may well rise even higher over the next two months.

Meanwhile, we're still in El Niño, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image below shows the monthly temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024. 

Note that the anomalies in the two above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher.

These high temperatures threaten to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Earlier versions of this post are discussed at facebook at:

Mar 12, 2023 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161

Mar 11, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (below)
Feb 22, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161
Feb 21, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161
Jan 28, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161

Tragedy set to unfold in tropics

The temperature is rising rapidly in the tropics. The image below shows the situation in the tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) through February 14, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.3°C, i.e. 1.3°C above 1979-2000.

On April 24, 2016, it was 26.8°C, the highest temperature on record in the tropics, 1°C above 1979-2000, as the above image also shows. The image below shows temperature anomalies over the years. 

Note that the above anomalies are calculated from 1979-2000, which isn't pre-industrial. When calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher. Also have a look at the recent analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below. 

According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance that the current El Niño will persist through February-March-April 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 

The danger is that a tragedy will unfold over the next few months as temperatures look set to exceed the 2016 peak in the tropics and cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer 
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)  

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Discussed at facebook:

Feb 22, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161

Feb 21, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161

Jan 28, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161

Too late?

Climate change denial and the rise of fascism

by Andrew Glikson

but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because
there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023, in a letter to the author)

Extreme planetary heating, the failure of effective mitigation and the rise of denial around the world combine to lead to a seventh mass extinction of species. While originally Global warming constituted an unintended consequence of the 18-20ᵗʰ centuries industrial revolution, the collapse of attempts to arrest it in the 20-21st centuries is already leading toward a mass extinction, but the rise of fascist movements and their neoconservative kins is jeopardizing a unified global approach to the climate crisis. Inherently however racist ideology, worship of power, glorification of war, the pride of killing and “honourable” death is not concerned with the fatal consequences of climate change.

Figure 1. 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin. It was 1.18°C
above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C. It was 1.35°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).

While the authorities (so-called) claim they are trying to arrest global warming, temperatures continue to rise to fatal levels (Figure 1). Ignoring climate science, dismissing climate scientists and confecting lies while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, the species sapiens is finding itself on track to carbon saturation to Miocene levels (420< ppm) of its atmosphere ─ the lungs of the Earth ─ at a geologically unprecedented rate. The extreme rise in the chemistry of the atmosphere, the acidification of the oceans and the coating of the land with carbon residues and plastics are leading toward an uninhabitable Earth.

With exceptions governments pretend the introduction of alternative energy ─ solar, wind, hydrothermal, hydro and tide ─ is likely to reduce the mining of and emission from fossil fuels, but this has hardly occurred since 2022. Oblivious to the implications of climate science, the concerns of the powers that be hinge on the bottom line, an attitude echoed by much in the population. False claims abound in high places, as exemplified by the chair of COP-28 conference claiming: “there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels”.

Everywhere, including Australia, carbon counting hinges on domestic mining and emissions to the exclusion of carbon exports. Thus “Oil, gas, and coal exports are not counted when countries tally their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement.”

Hopeful popular belief abound, as if new science-based discoveries could resolve climate change, as by the optimistic projection by NASA: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot. Such suggestions overlook the amplifying feedback from warming oceans, melting ice sheets. disintegrating permafrost, release of methane from the oceans, and migrating climate zones. Scientists are caught between a need to promote mitigation and adaptation on the one hand and a reluctance to communicate the impending calamity.

Australia’s enshrined emissions cut target of 43% by 2030, up from 26-28%, has limited consequences since it has become the fifth largest miner and the world’s third biggest exporter of fossil fuels, exporting only behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, more than Iraq, Venezuela and any country in the EU.

The blood-stained history of Homo sapiens since the mastery of fire (Figure 2), all the way to the Anthropocene crisis, combined with the proliferation of doomsday weapons, do not bode well for the future of terrestrial species.

Global empires east and west have become increasingly brutal. Fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ and its neo-conservative (so-called) followers are not concerned with global warming and its consequences, except where it hurts the profit motive. References to “climate change” by politicians constitute hollow words they hardly mean. There are not too many angels left except where the young like Greta Thunberg rebel.

Figure 2. The deep time origin of the Anthropocene.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Blue Ocean Event 2024?

How likely is an Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024 or even a Double BOE? The image below is alarming. 

The highest daily sea surface temperatures on record (going back to 1981) were reached in February 2024, even higher than the peaks in 2023. Even higher temperatures may be reached over soon, in March 2024 and April 2024.

As the above image shows, the highest temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. This was the case for the previous years on record, except for 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge and when the highest peak for the year occurred in August. According to NOAA, the majority of models indicate that this El Niño will persist through March-May 2024. 

Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February, while Arctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum in September, after a steep decline resulting from more sunlight reaching higher latitudes North and ocean heat reaching a second peak in August.   

Ominously, daily surface air temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere exceeded 17°C recently, something that never happened before in the record going back to 1981. Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February. Loss of sea ice acts as a self-reinforcing feedback loop, accelerating the temperature rise. The daily surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was 17.005°C on Feb 1, 2024, following a peak of 17.01°C on Jan 31, 2024.

Higher temperatures can cause sea ice to melt, even out of season

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Pidwirny, sunlight does not reach the North Pole until the March Equinox. From that time on, insolation rises steeply. Around the June Solstice, more sunlight reaches the North Pole than anywhere else on Earth. In the image below, insolation is calculated taking into account the combined effects of angle of incidence and day length duration. 

The conclusion is that ocean heat is the main reason why melting of Arctic sea ice can occur early in the year. More specifically, the narrowing of the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics can at times cause strong wind to be present along the path of the Gulf Stream. Rising ocean heat combined with strong wind can cause heat to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, causing sea ice to fall in extent. 

Such an event is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The image shows a drop in sea ice extent at the end of January 2024 (blue), a time of year when Arctic sea ice is still expected to increase in extent and to keep increasing in extent for some time to come (grey). In this case, strong wind may have caused a huge amount of ocean heat that is present in the North Atlantic to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in an earlier post. 

For the time of year, Arctic sea ice extent is currently still extensive, compared to earlier years, which is a reflection of more water vapor in the atmosphere and more precipitation. While sea ice extent is relatively large, sea ice volume is among the lowest of all years on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

This indicates that Arctic sea ice is very thin. Ominously, the image below indicates that there is a huge area near the North Pole with very thin sea ice. 

Furthermore, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland, which means that this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes (see the insolation image further above).

The North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 20.4°C on February 15, 2024, i.e. 0.6°C higher than on February 15, 2023.

High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic. 

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are just starting to heat up from their annual minimum and can be expected to rise strongly, in line with seasonal changes. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Ominously, a peak temperature of 25.4°C was reached on Aug.31, 2023, much higher than the peak in any of the preceding years dating back to 1981.

During the six months between the September Equinox and the March Equinox (see image further above), no sunlight is reaching the North Pole. 

Nonetheless, temperature anomalies in the Arctic are already extremely high, due to ocean heat that has entered the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the two maps on the right and the two maps on the right further below.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies were as much as 12.6°C or 22.7°F higher than 1981-2011 on February 15, 2024, locarion marked by the green circle on the image below.

Feedbacks 

Slowing down of AMOC and cooling due to heavier melting of Greenland's ice is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean, while a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic, as it did in 2023. A large part of this heat in the North Atlantic can also be present underneath the sea surface.

These developments occur at the same time as ocean stratification increases (as temperatures rise, see above images), as more freshwater enters the ocean (as a result of more meltwater and of runoff from land and from rivers), and as more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, all of which can contribute to formation and growth of a cold, freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic.

[ cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic ]

Furthermore, storms can get stronger as temperatures rise and as changes take place to the Jet Stream. Strong wind can temporarily speed up currents that carry huge amounts of ocean heat with them toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Much of the ocean heat in the North Atlantic can therefore be pushed abruptly underneath this freshwater lid and flow into the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

The image below shows wind speed at 250 hPa on a background of sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2011. 

The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

Changes to the Jet Stream and ocean heat accumulating in the North Atlantic Ocean are both consequences of the overall temperature rise. A distorted Jet Stream can cause an abrupt influx of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.

Such additional ocean heat, combined with a steep rise in insolation hitting the Arctic in April and May, may suffice to cause a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The far North has the highest temperature anomalies, they can as high as 7.04°C, as the image on the right shows.

A BOE occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and less than 1 million km² of sea ice remains. As the sea ice disappears, the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean) resulting in far more sunlight getting absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case.

Albedo change constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting. 

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. 

Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image illustrates these tipping points and Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Trends and tipping point estimates are added. The magenta trend is based on Jan.1880-Jan.2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend is based on Jan.2010-Jan.2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, and it warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024. 

The above image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a forecast for November 2024 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean.

Many additional feedbacks are active, such as changes to the Jet Stream and slowing down of AMOC, and they could speed up the crossing of such tipping points, as also discussed at the feedbacks page. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns. 

[ from earlier post - click on images to enlarge ]

Greenhouse gases rising

Meanwhile, concentrations of greenhouse gases keeps rising, as illustrated by the image below. 

The average daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 426.21 ppm (parts per million) on February 4, 2024. The weekly average was 425.83 ppm. 

Critical is the rate of change, in particular the rapid rise in temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations. To find higher CO₂ concentrations, one has to go back millions of years. 

A recent study concludes that: 
- A doubling of CO₂ is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5°C to 8°C.

- The last time atmospheric CO₂ consistently reached today’s human-driven levels of 420 ppm was 14 million years ago.

- The hottest period was about 50 million years ago, when temperatures were as much as 12°C higher than today.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily Sea Surface Temperature, World (60°S-60°N)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• Pidwirny, M. "Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition (2006)
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6i.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice extent
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO₂ - by The Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project (CenCO₂PIP) Consortium

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177
discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161165563844679

• NOAA - Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomalies

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/1/0/1850-2024

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/double-blue-ocean-event-2024.html

• Potential Temperature Trends
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Albedo and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Jet Stream

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html